Saturday, November 26, 2011

Wizards of Smart --- Not

Zerohedge brought the a rather delusional posting by the Fed to my attention, and I had to respond. I have no confidence that the Fed will treat my comment any more respectfully than ZH's, so it is attached below.

When a prediction does not match reality, there are three possibilities. The behavior is too complex to predict, the predictor is incompetent, or the predictor is biased. You seem to think “Nobody saw it” is a good excuse, when in fact a large number of people saw the upcoming collapse, warned about it, and were roundly bashed at the time, and ignored afterwards. But this is not a new phenomena, a student of history should be well aware of the phrase “you have hidden these things from the wise and learned, and revealed them to little children”

Myself, I would rather believe bias.